I had an interesting conversation on voice chat the other day with another player about the chance of rolling a decent shard dungeon.
As it stands, as per my previous thread, I identified with the help of the community that over 50% people do not enjoy Tradu Crypt and 1/3 do not enjoy Tradu Forest 
The reasoning as per feedback from the community:
Insights about Forest
- Tank keeper can crit on his random jump and potentially instakill squishies.
- Mushroom spawning RNG can occasionally spawn several under or inside the boss.
Insights about tradu crypt
- Worm boss is unreasonably long
- Worm boss elites scale too hard
- Soulkeeper fight can be a bit dull if you are fast enough to kill the adds as you have to wait for the boss to appear.
So this explains why I have so many left over tradu crypt and tradu forest shards
My worry is this; If Tradu crypt and Tradu Forest really are the wall, there are potentially many many players feeling less motivated to get geared up right now, creating an even bigger retention wall for the game when it comes to end game content.
Theoretically, if Tradu crypt and Tradu Forest are our problem children here, here are the (unconfirmed) numbers.
If i want to get a run of shards in the shortest possible time from level 3 (because 1 is easy to choose from) up to level 9 and 5/7 of the shards I regard as shards that i want to do and the shards jump in steps of 2 because I have the dps to kill it in under 15 mins up until level 7 (data from the armory suggests that this is part of the wall) the percent chance of getting that run up to level 9 is as follows.
COUNT(3,5,7,8,9) = 5.
shards I want to complete / possible shards to get on a roll
5/7 = 71.42%
percent chance of getting a clean run up until level 9 with shards I want to complete
71.42^5 = 18.58% chance of not getting a forest or crypt whilst trying to roll up to level 9.
= 81.42% chance of getting a tradu crypt or forest shard
Hypothesis: For up to every 4 out of 5 shards i tried leveling up, I got a forest or crypt which no one wanted to do or we could not complete
Is the above hypothesis to your experience?
- I have had this happen to me
- This has never been a problem for me.
@Riley_D can you confirm my numbers or are my maths way off?