A problem with luck

The luck stat doesn’t work
#TheCakeIsALie

do i need to explain? has anyone ever tested the luck stat to see if it indeed makes a difference cause at this point i downed like a stack of luck pots in raids and have gotten 2 drops and i hear most ppl say the same thing.
#WristItemWithLuckStat
no trending

5 Likes

I found that wearing luck rings significantly increased the number of drops I receive from low level mobs.

2 Likes

I can’t speak to boss drops, as it’s really difficult to get a sufficient sample size, but I spent time testing 50 Luck vs 150 Luck killing the same mobs, in the same place, over 500+ times each, to see if I could spot some trends. Obviously the rarer events (like Runemage Reagents) will have more variance to them based on smaller samples, but the more common stuff like gear, bait items, and general drops at all, resolved pretty consistently.

TL;DR: +100 Luck on trash appears to have no meaningful impact.

Stat Summary: 50 Luck

Stat Summary: 150 Luck

(Full Data Sample Provided Upon Request)

5 Likes

agreed! i’ve used 2 luck rings and luck potions on like 15 raid bosses and gotten the drop once. while others in the group who weren’t using any luck boosting things got items several times. #TheCakeIsALie #WristItemWithLuckStat

lol good tags

This was a triumph…
Lol loved that songgg! I liked the game but sucked at it. The puzzle are fun but my lack of first person shooter skills killed it.
Anywayyyyyy
I was wondering about the luck stats also. My drop rate in raids has been comical

Wow that is so cool! Thanks! Two annotations, a run without any luck rings might be interesting, because perhaps just the stacking doesn’t work. If it’s around every 3rd mob dropping something a trend should perhaps already form after 100 kills. Also there’s a bit less kills on the second sample, but the trend is clear.

Good that I normally don’t wear luck rings in groups…

That’s the run with 50 luck

1 Like

oh ok didn’t check lol… disregard this then, and this is truly astonishing :frowning:

That is very worrying if luck has no meaning, to be honest I did not notice a change in drop from luck rings either when i used to farm jungle dungeon back in the days, but I did not have exact numbers so I could not tell. It is also possible that the effect of luck stat is actually very small ~1-2% like we have seen some buffs and debuffs work, in which case the effect is so small that it is impossible to verify without huge amounts of testing data. (also at that point its not even worth it). I hope we can get some verification from devs whether luck is working as intended, or we just wasted tons of materials on placebo potions lol

1 Like

Hi,

I’m personally one of the farmer (monsters) who did the jungle dungeon the most, from all these runs I’ve definitely saw a difference with luck rings, I always farm with luck rings now but one ring is 25 luck so 2 rings is 50 luck + you got the 50 base luck for a total of 100 luck if you’re 20 with 2 rings.

I’ve seem from average of 33.333 % more drop in reagents with both rings. I’m basing on reagents cause it’s a “rare” drop and I always keep track of my reagents.

Now for the luck potions, from the super friends wiki (I don’t know if this is 100% true data) it says that the luck pots give 50 points of luck and that would be 5% more. I don’t know if they’re talking about 5% more drops in overall from what they seen or 5% of your currant luck, I always interpreted it as : 5% of your current luck (again I might be wrong.

But if it’s the case then it would mean that : 1 pots +2 ring +20 lvl = 105 luck, so with the 2 rings it can be a little boost from what I understand but with only 50 base luck you’d get 52.50 (probably down to 52). so in raid people use their good rings so the difference from what I understand is really small but if you were to use rings of luck in raid it might help.

Else if we calculate it with the 50 points of luck, with no luck rings (like in raid) you’d get the same amount of luck as with 2 rings on, in this case I think from what I’ve seen it would mean a 33.33% more drops in average.

I say 33.33% because over a lots and a lots of dungeon runs I’ve figured that by the time I fill my inventory and have to go to seller I get an average of 30 reagents (with 2 rings of luck) and without them it’s 20 reagents, it might take me half a dungeon more when I don’t use the 2 rings so it might not be exactly 33.33 but I’d say that it seems pretty close to that.

I’ve farmed over 75k monsters in the jungle dungeons, so I had time to establish averages.

I hope it’ll help you a bit in your quest on finding how luck work but It would be awesome to have 100% sure data from devs or confirmation on those data from superfriends.

while we are here let me just say about the drops I kinda feel that when im in a raid and i do see a purple light and its a dye that niether i nor anyone wants… its kinda a kick in the face if you ask me why are dyes up their with lv 14 loot. let me ask is this why people are not getting raid drops cause they are getting dyes instead?

after a while when u beat bosses and only get a kick in the face it feels like i am being punished by for beating a raid boss not rewarded.

1 Like

Few data points:

  • Base Luck is 50, Luck Rings are 25 each, and the Luck Potion is another +50, which is how you get 150.
  • Given the relatively low chance of reagents to drop (~2-4%), you will need a significantly larger sample size to really nail this down. Case in point, over 500+ kills with 150 luck produced 11 reagents and over 500+ kills with 50 luck produced 19 reagents. We’d likely need to get thousands and thousands of samples for this to normalize down to solid number. The rareness of this is why sometimes people will get streaks, but I am confident the Luck stat does not play a statistically significant role.
  • Getting dyes from raid bosses is on a separate loot roll than the gear drops (just as reagents, lure material A lure material B, gear, and rings are on separate tables with trash), as you can get dye and gear at the same time. Getting a dye doesn’t mean you would’ve gotten gear if you hadn’t gotten a dye.
4 Likes

Every time I’ve tried to do an average it was base on 1k monsters in a row (same session), for my average without rings I’ve done it at least 5 time, I had different numbers but like I said 20 seem to be the average on 1k run on at least 5k monsters, not only 500. for the 2 rings average this is base on 1k monsters in a row too and I’m sure 100% that my average is good at 30, I’ve done it over 70 times that 1k run, so on 70k monsters and more.

My average without rings is way lower I’m 100% sure of it, but I couldn’t say it’s exactly 20 it could go up to 22-23 I think but only did 5k monsters on that but again I’m sure luck play a role from what I’ve seen.

TL;DR The most valuable thing that I can conclude from this is that the overall luck increase for all drops (the 100 luck boost) must have been less then 6% and more likely something like 2% which would be really hard to test. Or no increase in luck at all which would require a player to kill about 40000 monsters to prove this is the case haha. And this is disregarding that some items might not be affected by luck :confused:

Very interesting stats @Draven. Would love to see more of these cool things from you in the future :slight_smile:

I have some stats about your stats. I wanted to know if your sample size was big enough to test this out. So I looked at the percentage change that your 33% (32.94%) out of 513 kills would indeed be that percentage or another percentage and I got the following results:
(Left side Draven would have gotten drop percentage, Right side change of Draven getting that percentage)
21% : 6.0E-6%
22% : 1.0E-5%
23% : 1.0E-4%
24% : 0.001302%
25% : 0.00989%
26% : 0.056808%
27% : 0.37557%
28% : 1.204504%
29% : 3.27805%
30% : 7.078848%
31% : 12.191918%
32% : 16.783606%
33% : 18.563898%
34% : 16.531392%
35% : 13.659504%
36% : 6.074506%
37% : 2.765184%
38% : 1.02249%
39% : 0.307856%
40% : 0.076034%
41% : 0.015492%
42% : 0.002758%
43% : 2.5E-4%
44% : 1.6E-5%
45% : 8.0E-6%

What I think would be a good observation is that:

  • In theory you could have gotten as result a 21 percentage as minimum and 45 percentage as maximum which resulted in you saying that 45-21=24% in difference could have been your result between luck and no luck with still the luck being fake. But the change that you would have gotten is extremely small. Like 0.000001% change so lets disregard this.
  • A more reasonable location would be 36%-30%=6% difference which is the error we could not have known. So if the luck stat had more effect than that % then and only then we can rely on this experiment proving that luck has effect. Which is not the case here.

You need kill about 5000 monsters to have a reasonable 2% error. Or kill 20000 monsters to have a 1% error margin.

I ran the test by using a random number generator hitting a drop every 32.94%
I did this 513 times (the sample size of Draven) and looked at the percentage where the player had a drop and remembered that percentage as 1 possibility what Draven could have had as percentage result.
Then I repeated that 50 000 000 times and calculated the percentage change Draven’s result would have been that percentage instead.

Please @Riley_D give us the numbers so we know if we can actually prove luck works and on what it works -_-

1 Like

I can confirm that the luck stat is working (we log the percent chance on each drop roll so I can easily see that is higher/lower depending on if people have luck enabled). The amount of help it gives you is based on the type of drop and the existing drop chance.

It ranges from around a 5% - 25% improvement in the drop rate depending on how much luck you have active, but that’s multiplicative not additive – so if the drop chance is 10% normally you are increasing it to 10.5% - 12.5% for example.

On the one hand we want the luck equipment/potion to be “worth it”, on the other hand obviously we can’t break the entire drop chance and make it like +100% or something like that.

In Reborn I think we are going to be transitioning away from that type of +Luck since basically my take on it from watching the community discuss it is that the effect isn’t noticeable to make it worthwhile. And instead move more toward a system of getting an additional guaranteed roll for the week on your Shard Dungeon runs or something like that, where it doesn’t affect every roll but instead is a very noticeable, definite result that you will be able to easily gauge the worth of.

3 Likes

That is really good news. My main issue with the rings is that luck is equipped instead of crit/health rings which are a vital help for the group, so everyone using luck instead of these might be responsible for not getting content done (in time)… which makes me really feel bad to put em on, at all. Even in the lowest shard dungeons an unlucky group can miss the 15mins, closely, and wearing other rings could’ve made a difference.

That’s just not cool, wearing luck rings in dungeons and raids - in cases where there’s not the whole group agreeing on them like ‘oh we are almost done now all wear luck rings for this boss’ - amounts to a constant choice between egoism and teamplay, without the rest of the group even noticing who chooses what.

Aww spoilers @Riley_D I kind of liked having a stat that no one really new if it had a effect, and requierd a ridiculous amount of testing to confirm.

People saying “I don’t believe in luck” always made me smile.

Haha I kind of feel the same way but since we’re at the tail end of this content cycle and we’re likely changing how it works anyway I feel like now is a good time to put the issue to rest :slight_smile:

3 Likes

If at most you are getting a 2% increase and at worst a .5% increase, for a luck stat like that weren’t the people who said it did nothing basically right?
If it was 2% without luck pots on reagents, that would be good, but the maximum 2% requires the pots which last almost no time,